Angels-Sox Playoff Preview

On paper, the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels of In-N-Out look evenly matched.  Both boast solid pitching staffs - Boston had a 1.33 WHIP this season compared to 1.32 WHIP for the Rally Monkeys.  Both field a lineup filled with some devastating power hitters whether its Torii Hunter (112 OPS+), Mark Teixeira (153 OPS+) and Vladimir Guerrero (131 OPS+) for the LA Smogs or Ortiz (125 OPS+), Youkilis (145 OPS+) and Mighty Mouse (123 OPS+) for the Sox. In the regular season, the 405s crushed the Turnpikes, winning 8-of-9 matchups.  On to the specifics:

Batting

By the numbers, the Sox have the better offense (.805 OPS compared to .743 OPS), but there are a lot of uncertainties about the Sox lineup.  Mike Lowell (105 OPS+)  and JD Drew (139 OPS+) are both struggling with minor injuries but hope to play.  Jason Bay (129 OPS+) has been great down the stretch, but as the chattering classes can't help but point out, he has no postseason experience.

Teixeira was a great pickup, but the Angels are not a particularly deep lineup.  Nobody is going to be quaking over the bats of Chone "Shawn" Figgins and Erick "Eric" Aybar.  By comparison, Sox role players such as Lowrie, Crisp and Ellsbury have all had more productive years.  

Pitching

The Angels can take solace in the fact that they have one of the more dangerous rotations in baseball.  Game One will feature the Battle of the Jo(h)ns with Lackey (116 ERA+, 1.231 WHIP) facing Lester (143 ERA+, 1.274 WHIP).  Lackey has had past difficulties with the playoff Sox, and he has been fading down the stretching giving up 19 earned runs in his last four starts.

Game Two features a matchup between The Other Santana (125 ERA+, 1.119 WHIP) and Daisuke "The Magician" Matsuzaka (158 ERA+, 1.324 WHIP).  Dice-K has been keeping his walks down as of late and (oddly enough) pitches better on the road.

Game Three features Joe Saunders (128 ERA+, 1.212 WHIP) against Josh Beckett (114 ERA+, 1.187 WHIP), who has been sending oblique signals (he he) about his possible abdomen strain.  As we all know, Beckett has "October" tattooed on his backside;  he has the fourth lowest postseason WHIP of all-time at 0.750.

One of the marquee matchups is the dueling closers, Francisco "The Less Douchy Hyphen-Rod" Rodriguez (195 ERA+, 1.288 WHIP) and Jonathan Papelbon (196 ERA+, 0.952 WHIP).  Both are dominant at their position.  Some crazy folks have even suggested K-Rod win the MVP.  If all else fails, these two can have a "sprint off the mound and assume bizarre celebratory poses" competition.

A lot of people are making a lot of hay about the fact that the Angels won 100 games.  Yet as King Kaufman has pointed out, since the 1998 Yankees, none of 13 teams that won 100 or more games has gone on to clinch the championship and only three have made it to the series.  Let me also point out that while 100 wins is impressive, its less awe inspiring when you realize that the Angels play the Rangers, A's and Mariners nineteen times apiece.

In any event, the series should be close.  It should be well pitched and low scoring.  I agree that it will go the limit.  I will take the Sox in five.

Honorary Non-Sports, Presidential Debate Post

Sarah Palin keeps watch to make sure Putin does not rear his head.  

"WOLVERINES!"

BREAKING NEWS: Papelbon Ascends Back to his Home Planet!

FENWAY PARK, BOSTON MA - In a shocking turn of events, Boston closer Jonathan Papelbon chose the celebration following last night's playoff clinching win over the Cleveland Indians as the time to announce his sudden return to his distant home world.  

"My fellow Bots need me," the enigmatic Red Sox pitcher said via one of his speaking antennae.  "I cannot go into the details, but let me be clear - I will not allow the Papelhive to be threatened by the evil forces of the Imperium."

While Papelbon's decision took many of his teammates by surprise, they were supportive of his decision.  "We all understand what he's going through," said team captain Jason Varitek.  "When your Adromidean sea slugs are threatened, its not time to focus on baseball."

J.D. Drew addressed the matter directly - "when the Galactic Queen Eliumphiartus calls, you go."

Jeter for VP?

Joe Posnanski asks a great question:  is Derek Jeter the Sarah Palin of baseball?  Like Palin, he's a real cutie.  Like Palin, he is beloved by the media.  Like Palin, he doesn't really do his job well, but he does it with a lot of style and manages to overshadow his more talented rivals. And given his participation in the World Baseball classic, even Derek Jeter has more foreign policy experience than Sarah Palin.  McCain-Jeter '08!

In related news, after an amazing run of consecutive appearances, the Yankees are going to miss the playoffs.  To put it in context, the last time the Yankees didn't make the playoffs, the number one song in the nation was Boyz II Men "I'll Make Love to You."

Speaking of closing your eyes and making a wish, the Red Sox clinched a playoff birth last night.  Aside from the Sox and Yankees, teams that have won the world series over the last decade have had a hard time making it back to October.  The Cards, Chi Sox, Marlins and Angels all wilted in the years following their series victories.  So whatever happens over the next few weeks, Sox fans should savor the extra baseball.

Game 3 Twitter: the Dink and Dunk Edition

So this is what it feels like to be steamrolled by a superior team.   Some are calling this game an "upset," but that is very generous to our squad and a little too dismissive to the Dolphins.  Miami controlled this game from start to finish, on both sides of the ball, in every way possible.  It was more painful to watch than that "Laugh In" bit on the Emmys.  Other random thoughts:

-  I am on record as a big Cassel fan, but screen passes to Wes Welker and quick outs to Randy Moss are just not going to do the job.  The Patriots had only one play in the first half that went for more than twenty yards, and that was the "should have been intercepted until a chorus of angels guided the ball into Welker's outstretched hands" play.

-  Have you heard of this new restaurant called the CBS Scene®?  I hear they offer a revolutionary dining and sports experience.

-  Has protecting the QB has gone too far?  Miami is awarded an "in the grass" sack in the first quarter despite the fact that the replay showed the Dolphin's defensive lineman had a negligible grip on Cassel.   Later in the game, however, the Patriots benefited from the quarterback protection obsession when a Matt Cassel interception was negated by a bogus Vonnie Holliday roughing the passer penalty.

-  I can't believe E*Trade is still running their "so easy a baby can do it" ads.  So easy, you can lose your life savings!

-  For all the ire being directed towards Cassel, what was up with our defense making Ronnie Brown look like the second coming of Walter Payton?  And why were we burned not once but three times on gadget plays involving Pennington lining up as a wide receiver?  Is this a college football scrimmage?  

-  Memo to all of the Patriots "fans" who were flooding out of Gillette with 13:28 left in the fourth quarter - you are the reason the rest of the world hates us, you fairweather jackasses.

NFL Week 3: The Toilet Bowl Edition

The Patriots look to go 3-0 this Sunday against the hapless Dolphins.  Rather than focusing on the usual Belichick oddities - like the fact that Laurence Maroney is listed both on the injury report and the starting lineup (!)  - I am going to engage in the inevitable game of "which lousy team do you think will stumble into the playoffs only to get hammered in the wildcard round."

Let's start with some history.  Since 2000, only six teams have started 0-2 and made the playoffs.  Two of these teams - the 2007 Giants and the 2001 Patriots - went on to win the Superbowl.  Huzzah for parity!

More generally, a number of teams have had disastrous starts but managed to recover.  The 2005 Bears started the season 1-4 before putting together a string of wins to finish the season 11-5.  The 2004 Patriots similarly started 1-4 before scraping in as a wildcard with a 10-6 record.

And who can forget the 2002 season where two teams - the Jets and the Titans - opened with 1-4 records before sneaking into the playoffs.  In fact, the 2002 playoffs were notable for having a whole slew of slow starters make the cut, including the Falcons and Steelers, both of whom opened 0-2 but managed to squeak into the divisional rounds.

You have to go back to 1998, however, to find a team that started 0-3 and still made it to the postseason scrum.  So what does that mean for the 0-2 Dolphins, Browns, Bengals, Seahawks, Jaguars, Chargers and Chiefs?  Who is most likely to put together a streak and make the playoffs?

The trendy pick is the Chargers, who were supposedly robbed by bad officiating.  At the same time, San Diego gave up a franchise worst 34 first downs to the Broncos last Sunday.  This season, their defense has been laughable surrendering 6.1 yards per play. 

Minnesota is another team that gets the occasional mention.  The Vikings certainly have an impressive ground game - they outrushed Indianapolis 180-25 last week.  But Adrian Peterson is questionable with a bum knee, and Tarvaris Jackson is being replaced by journeyman QB Gus "Old Faithful" Frerotte.  

My sleeper pick is Seattle.  Last week's overtime loss to the 49ers was pretty fluky.  The Seahawks play the putrescent Rams this week, so chalk up at least one win.  It also goes without saying that the NFC West is a weak division.  The Cardinals are on top, but have taken advantage of some pathetic opponents and two atypical outings by veteran Kurt "The Greatest Early Bird Special on Turf" Warner.  If anyone can claw their way into the postseason, it's the Seahawks.

Where does that leave the Patriots?  Well, between 1990-2005, teams that started 3-0 made the playoffs 76 percent of the time.   

Patriots Game 2 Twitter

Patriots slog out a satisfying win against the team the chattering classes and greying blue jeans wearers had picked to win the AFC East.  More thoughts:

-  Matt Cassel starts his first football game since humans wrestled saber-toothed tigers and skinned wooly mammoths .  And he was solidly efficient, completing 16 of 23 for 165 yards with no interceptions.

-  The Geriatric Gunslinger had comparable numbers, with the exception of one of his signature game-changing interceptions.  

-  Although he only racked up 65 yards, LaMont Jordan looked fantastic.  Compared to Laurence Maroney, who does more tiptoeing at the line of scrimmage than Fred Astaire,  Jordan's straight-ahead, run-over-fools style was refreshing.

-  Adalius Thomas is not content with sacking just one man.   When he throws old men to the turf, he does so in bunches.

-  Jerod Mayo plays a solid game with seven tackles.  Can we please now bury the phrase "aging linebacker corps"?

-  Not only did Gostkowski kick four field goals, he also launched five kickoffs into the Jets end zone for touchbacks.  Is it too early to start saying Steve for MVP?

"I threw down my enemy and smote his ruin upon the field turf..."

What does the almighty have against the ACLs of current and former Patriots?  All I know is that if I were Romeo Crennel, I would cancel my planned appearance in the X-Games freestyle dirt bike competition... 

The Brady-pocalypse

Ask any doctor who performs surgeries on torn ACLs and they will tell you that the knee is essentially like a plate overcooked spaghetti wrapped in tissue paper.  In other words, its a flimsy tasty meal.

Its not surprising then, that knee injuries are a plague on the NFL.  Of course, we've all heard of Tom Brady.  More on that in a moment.  But did you know that Jacksonville's Vince Manuwai, Arizona's Al Johnson, San Diego's Shawne Merriman, and Seattle's Nate Burleson, and all went down to season ending knee injuries last week?  

At this rate, 85 NFL players will suffer ligament tears and rips over the course of the season.  Note to parents everywhere - encourage your kids to become doctors not interior linemen.

Returning to Brady, this is obviously bad for the Patriots.  They are not the same team without Brady under center.  Whatever happens, Brady will always be my QB in tight pants.  But how bad of a blow this is  to the 2008 season depends on a whole bunch of things - things like "the system" and "Belichick's genius" and "Matt Cassel", who you may have heard the first ten thousand times it was mentioned "hasn't started a meaningful football game since high school."

Lost in all the fury is the fact that the Patriots still have Randy Moss and Wes Welker.  They still have pro-bowlers Matt Light, Logan Mankins, and Dan Koppen on the offensive line.  They still have the easiest schedule in the NFL.  They still were eighth in league last week in terms of Football Outsiders defense-adjusted value over average.  

And I am still not sold on the alternatives in the AFC East.  The New York media is high on the Jets simply because Brett "The Geriatric Gunslinger" Farve threw two dangerous wild heaves up into the air that just happened to be caught for improbable touchdowns.  And the Jets still almost lost, to the hapless Dolphins.

What about the AFC writ large?  The Colts, Chargers, and Jaguars all looked terrible.  The Steelers are a flashy pick after their manhandling of the Texans.  But I would make two observations:  (1) they beat the Texans who play like my grandmother in pads and (2) the Steelers still have the toughest schedule in the league - they have to face twelve teams with winning records including eight former playoff teams.  The season is young.

American's love their sports heros, but in the end,  football is largely a team sport.  You put any average quarterback behind an offensive line full of pro-bowlers and give him a plethora of  pro-bowl targets at wide receiver and they are going to look a heck of a lot  better.   

And as Cold, Hard Football Facts pointed out, a number of teams have rebounded from a devastating injury to their franchise quarterback.   Teams like the 1999 Rams or the 2001 Patriots.  Remember those guys?  I think they won a shiny phallus with a silver plated football on top.

Bottom line: expect a slide, but the Patriots season is not turning and turning in the widening gyre.

Battle Royal: Sox and Rays

For some time now, I have been predicting that the Rays would regress to the mean.   It just made sense.  The Rays were fourth in the AL East in runs scored.  Third in the AL East in run differential.  Their Pythagorean W-L had them at 79-62, a full six games worse than their actual record.  But despite the odds (and the evil machinations of Dr. Stat), the Rays kept winning.  

Typically, sportswriters chalk up these aberrations to the familiar intangibles - things like grit, heart, hustle, brains, gumption,  or clubhouse chemistry.  If sportswriters are  in an especially pandering mood, they might even praise then loyal fan (given that the Rays have the third worst home attendance in the AL, this theory is somewhat suspect in this case).

Here is my attempt to uncover the mystery to the Rays and get a sense of where thing stand going forward, especially as the race is tightening:

Pitching

The Rays have the second best ERA in the AL, largely because of the dominance starting pitcher Scott Kazmir (144 ERA+) and a terrific bullpen.

In addition to Kazmir, the Rays have also taken advantage a solid contributions from Matt Garza (121 ERA+) and James Shields (118 ERA+).  After these three, however, the Rays staff becomes decidedly mediocre with Edwin Jackson (106 ERA+), Andy Sonnanstine (92 ERA+) and Jason Hammel (92 ERA+) cycling in and out at the bottom of the rotation.  

Of course by comparison, the Sox starting pitching is not necessarily in the best of shape.  After Matsuzaka (157 ERA+) and Lester (134 ERA+), there is a fairly big drop off to Wakefield (110 ERA+) and Beckett (108 ERA+),  both of whom have struggled with injuries.  And the Boston fifth starter remains a carousel.  The Buchholz Experiment went poorly, and while Paul Byrd has been solid in his first few starts, its too early to tell whether he can keep up this consistency.

Where the Rays really stand out is their bullpen  Although closer Troy Percival (88 ERA+) has been an inconsistent injury magnet, the Rays have had great contributions from Dan Wheeler (173 ERA+) and JP Howell (170 ERA+).  The true star of the Rays pen, however, has been Grant Balfour (253 ERA+), who in 47.7 innings pitched has allowed just 9 earned runs with 70 SOs to just 21 BB.  

By contrast, Papelbon has been his usual dominant self (273 ERA+).  After Lopez (166 ERA+) and a resurgent Okajima (154 ERA+), the Sox enter the realm of average with Delcarmen (117 ERA+) and Aaaaaaaaaardsma (108 ERA+).

So in terms of pitching, I think this is more or less a push with a slight edge to the Rays.  Both teams have a solid top of the rotation, with Tampa Bay having a bit more depth in the three through five slots.  If  games are high scoring and the bullpens are featured prominently, then I would nod to Joe Maddon's bunch.  But in close squeakers, like last night, I think the Sox have the edge.

Position Players

No one is going to mistake the Rays for an offensive juggernaut.  They are seventh in the AL in OPS, and despite their great record at Tropicana Field, they are ninth in the AL in runs per game at home. 

The Rays have had solid contributions from first baseman Carlos Pena (128 OPS+) and all star third baseman Evan Longoria (133 OPS+), as well as DH Cliff Floyd (121 OPS+).  But there are definitely black holes of suckiness in their line up, including  second baseman Iwamura (96 OPS+), shortstop Bartlett (79 OPS+), as well as the recently injured Carl Crawford (91 OPS+).

There is also a large dash of medicority.  Centerfielder BJ Upton (111 OPS+) has shown a lot of speed with forty two stolen bases and utility outfielders Eric Hinske (114 OPS+) and Gabe Gross (114 OPS+) have been consistent, but this is surely not a lineup to be feared. 

By comparison, the Sox have five players boasting an OPS+ over 120 including  Youkilis (142 OPS+), Pedroia (126 OPS+), Bay (125 OPS+), Drew (140 OPS+) and Ortiz (124 OPS+). 

In reality, the only offensive liability in the Sox lineup is Varitek.  Lowell (106 OPS+), Crisp (96 OPS+) and Cora (99 OPS+) have been in the middle of the pack but solid.  So even though Drew and Lowell have been flirting with injuries and Ortiz's clicking wrist has everyone nervous, there is a reason the Sox have lead the AL in BA, OBP and OPS for the bulk of the season.

So in terms of position players, I think the Sox have a decided advantage.  The Sox have a fearsome middle of the lineup with few automatic outs, while the Rays are a mixed bag.  

Down the Stretch

The Sox would also appear to have the easier schedule to close out the season.  The Sox play the Rays and the Jays for six games on the road before closing out the season at home against Cleveland and the Yankees.  By contrast, Tampa faces a tough home series against Minnesota before finishing with a seven game road trip against Baltimore and Detroit.  

What explains, then  the secret to the Rays mojo?   It appears that some mysterious brew of solid starting pitching, a dominant bullpen, enough offense to scrape by, and a dash of luck.  But I feel the same way I did earlier in the season - the fundamentals would seem to favor the Sox.  This would appear to be especially true if Beckett and Lowell heat up down the stretch.