For some time now, I have been predicting that the Rays would regress to the mean. It just made sense. The Rays were fourth in the AL East in runs scored. Third in the AL East in run differential. Their Pythagorean W-L had them at 79-62, a full six games worse than their actual record. But despite the odds (and the evil machinations of Dr. Stat), the Rays kept winning.
Typically, sportswriters chalk up these aberrations to the familiar intangibles - things like grit, heart, hustle, brains, gumption, or clubhouse chemistry. If sportswriters are in an especially pandering mood, they might even praise then loyal fan (given that the Rays have the third worst home attendance in the AL, this theory is somewhat suspect in this case).
Here is my attempt to uncover the mystery to the Rays and get a sense of where thing stand going forward, especially as the race is tightening:
Pitching
The Rays have the second best ERA in the AL, largely because of the dominance starting pitcher Scott Kazmir (144 ERA+) and a terrific bullpen.
In addition to Kazmir, the Rays have also taken advantage a solid contributions from Matt Garza (121 ERA+) and James Shields (118 ERA+). After these three, however, the Rays staff becomes decidedly mediocre with Edwin Jackson (106 ERA+), Andy Sonnanstine (92 ERA+) and Jason Hammel (92 ERA+) cycling in and out at the bottom of the rotation.
Of course by comparison, the Sox starting pitching is not necessarily in the best of shape. After Matsuzaka (157 ERA+) and Lester (134 ERA+), there is a fairly big drop off to Wakefield (110 ERA+) and Beckett (108 ERA+), both of whom have struggled with injuries. And the Boston fifth starter remains a carousel. The Buchholz Experiment went poorly, and while Paul Byrd has been solid in his first few starts, its too early to tell whether he can keep up this consistency.
Where the Rays really stand out is their bullpen Although closer Troy Percival (88 ERA+) has been an inconsistent injury magnet, the Rays have had great contributions from Dan Wheeler (173 ERA+) and JP Howell (170 ERA+). The true star of the Rays pen, however, has been Grant Balfour (253 ERA+), who in 47.7 innings pitched has allowed just 9 earned runs with 70 SOs to just 21 BB.
By contrast, Papelbon has been his usual dominant self (273 ERA+). After Lopez (166 ERA+) and a resurgent Okajima (154 ERA+), the Sox enter the realm of average with Delcarmen (117 ERA+) and Aaaaaaaaaardsma (108 ERA+).
So in terms of pitching, I think this is more or less a push with a slight edge to the Rays. Both teams have a solid top of the rotation, with Tampa Bay having a bit more depth in the three through five slots. If games are high scoring and the bullpens are featured prominently, then I would nod to Joe Maddon's bunch. But in close squeakers, like last night, I think the Sox have the edge.
Position Players
No one is going to mistake the Rays for an offensive juggernaut. They are seventh in the AL in OPS, and despite their great record at Tropicana Field, they are ninth in the AL in runs per game at home.
The Rays have had solid contributions from first baseman Carlos Pena (128 OPS+) and all star third baseman Evan Longoria (133 OPS+), as well as DH Cliff Floyd (121 OPS+). But there are definitely black holes of suckiness in their line up, including second baseman Iwamura (96 OPS+), shortstop Bartlett (79 OPS+), as well as the recently injured Carl Crawford (91 OPS+).
There is also a large dash of medicority. Centerfielder BJ Upton (111 OPS+) has shown a lot of speed with forty two stolen bases and utility outfielders Eric Hinske (114 OPS+) and Gabe Gross (114 OPS+) have been consistent, but this is surely not a lineup to be feared.
By comparison, the Sox have five players boasting an OPS+ over 120 including Youkilis (142 OPS+), Pedroia (126 OPS+), Bay (125 OPS+), Drew (140 OPS+) and Ortiz (124 OPS+).
In reality, the only offensive liability in the Sox lineup is Varitek. Lowell (106 OPS+), Crisp (96 OPS+) and Cora (99 OPS+) have been in the middle of the pack but solid. So even though Drew and Lowell have been flirting with injuries and Ortiz's clicking wrist has everyone nervous, there is a reason the Sox have lead the AL in BA, OBP and OPS for the bulk of the season.
So in terms of position players, I think the Sox have a decided advantage. The Sox have a fearsome middle of the lineup with few automatic outs, while the Rays are a mixed bag.
Down the Stretch
The Sox would also appear to have the easier schedule to close out the season. The Sox play the Rays and the Jays for six games on the road before closing out the season at home against Cleveland and the Yankees. By contrast, Tampa faces a tough home series against Minnesota before finishing with a seven game road trip against Baltimore and Detroit.
What explains, then the secret to the Rays mojo? It appears that some mysterious brew of solid starting pitching, a dominant bullpen, enough offense to scrape by, and a dash of luck. But I feel the same way I did earlier in the season - the fundamentals would seem to favor the Sox. This would appear to be especially true if Beckett and Lowell heat up down the stretch.
