The Patriots look to go 3-0 this Sunday against the hapless Dolphins. Rather than focusing on the usual Belichick oddities - like the fact that Laurence Maroney is listed both on the injury report and the starting lineup (!) - I am going to engage in the inevitable game of "which lousy team do you think will stumble into the playoffs only to get hammered in the wildcard round."
Let's start with some history. Since 2000, only six teams have started 0-2 and made the playoffs. Two of these teams - the 2007 Giants and the 2001 Patriots - went on to win the Superbowl. Huzzah for parity!
More generally, a number of teams have had disastrous starts but managed to recover. The 2005 Bears started the season 1-4 before putting together a string of wins to finish the season 11-5. The 2004 Patriots similarly started 1-4 before scraping in as a wildcard with a 10-6 record.
And who can forget the 2002 season where two teams - the Jets and the Titans - opened with 1-4 records before sneaking into the playoffs. In fact, the 2002 playoffs were notable for having a whole slew of slow starters make the cut, including the Falcons and Steelers, both of whom opened 0-2 but managed to squeak into the divisional rounds.
You have to go back to 1998, however, to find a team that started 0-3 and still made it to the postseason scrum. So what does that mean for the 0-2 Dolphins, Browns, Bengals, Seahawks, Jaguars, Chargers and Chiefs? Who is most likely to put together a streak and make the playoffs?
The trendy pick is the Chargers, who were supposedly robbed by bad officiating. At the same time, San Diego gave up a franchise worst 34 first downs to the Broncos last Sunday. This season, their defense has been laughable surrendering 6.1 yards per play.
Minnesota is another team that gets the occasional mention. The Vikings certainly have an impressive ground game - they outrushed Indianapolis 180-25 last week. But Adrian Peterson is questionable with a bum knee, and Tarvaris Jackson is being replaced by journeyman QB Gus "Old Faithful" Frerotte.
My sleeper pick is Seattle. Last week's overtime loss to the 49ers was pretty fluky. The Seahawks play the putrescent Rams this week, so chalk up at least one win. It also goes without saying that the NFC West is a weak division. The Cardinals are on top, but have taken advantage of some pathetic opponents and two atypical outings by veteran Kurt "The Greatest Early Bird Special on Turf" Warner. If anyone can claw their way into the postseason, it's the Seahawks.
Where does that leave the Patriots? Well, between 1990-2005, teams that started 3-0 made the playoffs 76 percent of the time.
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