June 20, 2008

The Most Overrated Players



Sports Illustrated polled five hundred major league baseball players to get their opinion on "who is the most overrated player in the league?"   The results are equal parts predictable and surprising:

1.  Derek Jeter
2.  Barry Zito
3.  (tie) Alex Rodriguez, J.D. Drew
4.  (tie) David Wright, Kevin Youkilis

With Jeter slugging a meager .381 and posting a laughable 93 OPS+, I can't really disagree with the top pick.  (Maybe we'll have to redefine "to jeterate"?)

Similarly, the appearance of Zito on the list is no big shocker given his disastrous season - a 6.32 ERA and 1.932 WHIP - not to mention his inflated $14.5 million paycheck.  But given that everyone in San Francisco not named Brian Sabean knew the Zito deal was a dog makes it had to claim he was "overrated".

Aside from that, I am pretty surprised by the appearance of Slappy McBluelips and Mr. Roboto in the third spot tie.  Whatever you think about his charming personality, A-Rod leads the league in slugging, is fifth in OBP, and has a 178 OPS+.  Drew - despite his reported cardiovascular deficiencies - is second in OBP, third in slugging, and has a 170 OPS+.  I would say these two are rated just about fine.

I also can't figure out why Wright and Youkilis are on the list.  Maybe its because the two are young, up and coming players who get showered with a lot of praise by sabermetric geeks like Bill James?  Whatever the reason, its hard to argue with Wright's numbers - .480 slugging, 126 OPS+, on pace for a fourth straight 100+ RBI season.  And Youkilis may not be a greek god in the clubhouse showers, but he has been slugging .530 with a 137 OPS+.  Also, at $5.2 and $3 million respectively, these guys are steals.

Its hard to take the SI poll too seriously, of course.  The players answering the survey are probably defining "overrated" using a "number of Stuart Scott booyas awarded * batting average or W-L record" formula.  But if I had to make my top five overrated list, it might look something like this:

1.  Richie Sexson:  paid $15 million to post a .294 OBP.
2.  Andruw Jones:  banking $14 million for a 42 OPS+.
3.  Roy Oswalt:  receiving $13 million in exchange for an abysmal 83 ERA+.
4.  Gary Sheffield:  Detroit is paying the injury hobbled outfielder approximately $1.1 million for each of his 12 RBIs.
5.  Mark Buehrle:  raking in $14 million for a decidedly mediocre 101 ERA+, good for a 4-6 record.



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